Open Letter to President Obama. (Stay in touch and please bookmark!)

Mr. President,

I know it's been since May 2008 during your campaign that I met you in Northern Indiana and gave you Heinberg's book on oil depletion with my blog address written on the inside cover. I really hope you remembered or chose to take the book with you to the White House during your move. I also hope that with recent news that you can keep your Blackberry, that you can/would bookmark this blog with its valuable links to the best of the best voices of the peak oil and sustainable living subculture!

A lot has transpired since then and I'm almost sure you haven't had the time to read the book, although you appear to understand a little about our oil situation already. Likewise, I've been so busy with your campaign in 2008 that I haven't even had time to update this blog as much as I like nor to experiment with a lifestyle that's more sustainable. But first things first. I had to prioritize.

Well, now, the goal has been accomplished! Congratulations! There are a lot of things I'm happy with concerning what your presidency means, however, the most celebratory idea you've put forward in your campaign coincides greatly with one of the core solutions in living in a world with less cheap oil.

This mutual idea is community service. Although I have a hunch that you lean towards economic globalization and are (and will be) pressured by large corporations, your roots are firmly established in local community activism. Relocalization has become one of the principles for sustainability and survival in the peak oil crowd, and your encouragement for the people of our country to give service within their own communities is a welcoming message for us.

You have propelled me to choose a community-oriented service which will address both my concern for sustainability while simultaneously helping others in need. I will be volunteering at my local mission on a routine basis not only preparing items to help the poor and homeless but also will assist in their local garden for the homeless providing their own food. I can save and share my seeds and supplies. In other words, I'll help them give themselves skills to support themselves--a hand up, not just a hand out. That's all people really want.

So this is my hope. I thank you for inspiring me. May you allow God's will to work through you, that others may be drawn to Him through you and be so inspired to act and do for others, may He bless you and keep you and your family safe at all times.

Peak Oil Now--or not?

I've been reading about the recent spike in energy prices from a couple of different sources that I don't always read on a regular basis. It's kind of giving me pause about the underlying reasons for the spike. At first, I immediately attributed the price spike to increased demand from India and China. The supply/demand variable is a given precipice to price spikes in peak oil circles so, naturally, it was the first thing I thought of. However, I think there are other factors in play here as well.

I almost hate to give reference to Newsmax, because by my nature I attribute Newsmax to be a right-wing rag, and I lean more toward anything written with a liberal bias. I'm not sure how to peg Information Clearinghouse except that it seems more independent and is definitely not mainstream, although I do tend to accept the possibilities the articles that IC publishes (I owe to my inherently rebellious side). Nonetheless, I've been taught to identify the source and its biases, and also to read literature that doesn't always coincide with my own viewpoint. So, here I am presenting some articles from sources I don't naturally agree with in order to be fair and more educated on the subject myself.

After taking in this data and all of the previous data over the course of the last 4 years, I think I've come to the conclusion that while my view of peak oil remains intact, I do believe there are other variables at work at this particular time. I'm not sure that the world has actually peaked as I/we have no definitive proof that it has occurred. I think we will only know in hindsight without the proper hard evidence of proven reserves in all of the world. My feeling is that we are on a plateau and will seesaw up and down for quite awhile before sliding straight down.

What are the variables masking this seesaw plateau, you ask? In my opinion, the variables include availability of sweet crude vs. sour crude, the availability of refineries to meet demand and what grades of oil they have the ability to refine, the increase and decrease of consumption across the world, the fluctuations of demand destruction around the world caused by the higher oil prices, weather events affecting the physical extraction and transportation of oil, geopolitical events affecting exploration, extraction, processing & transportation of the oil, and market manipulations. These are just a few of the variables I can think of at this time.

With all of that said, I will give you the links to the two articles that tell me something other than JUST peak oil is in the mix:
Information Clearinghouse: The Great Oil Swindle
Newsmax: The Dollar and Oil-The Truth

The Oil Drum also has a good thread about the recent spike with some mainstream video of discussions on TV here if you want to look.

If you have time to read them, tell me what you think. Am I completely off the track?

Richard Heinberg on alternet: Have We Really Hit Peak Oil?

Click for full article.

Last week, Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would halt a U.S. arms sale to Saudi Arabia worth $1.4 billion. The implication is clear: no more war toys for the Saudis unless they agree to up their oil output.

The same day, the House approved a Senate plan to suspend oil deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in hopes of diverting that oil to the market, thus lowering the pump price a tiny amount. A week earlier, a handful of Senators proposed a bill threatening a trade dispute with members of OPEC if the organization doesn't stop "its anti-competitive practices and illegal export quotas on oil."

It's understandable that our elected leaders would want to do something about the meteoric rise of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices that are now bankrupting independent truckers and forcing many folks in colder states to choose between being able to stay warm and being able to drive to work. Yet efforts like the ones just mentioned are based on a profound misperception of why oil prices are rising. The real problem is summed up in the phrase "Peak Oil."

Petroleum is a finite substance and we have reached the inevitable point at which it simply isn't possible to increase the rate at which we extract it from the ground. Most oil producing countries, including the US, have already seen their glory days and are now watching output from their wells gradually dwindle. Only a few nations are early in the production cycle and able to ramp up the rate of flow. Here is a concise definition of Peak Oil from my colleague Chris Skrebowsi, the editor of Petroleum Review in London. He says: "Global oil production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding."

Well, how are we doing? Who's winning, the decliners or expanders?

According to last year's scorecard, the decliners won. The same happened in 2006. And that's with oil prices at record highs, presumably offering every incentive for nations that can produce more oil to do so. Does this mean we are at the all-time peak of global oil flow rates now? Not necessarily. There are large new production projects coming on line this year and next, including one in Saudi Arabia that will add several hundred thousand barrels a day to that nation's productive capacity.

Washington Post: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico

Click here for full article.


By Marcela Sanchez
Special to washingtonpost.com
Friday, May 16, 2008; 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON -- Mexican Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel's warning to the Mexican Congress last week sounded ominous: If legislators did not approve reforms within the oil sector, the country would suffer a "severe energy crisis" within a decade.

That's probably an understatement.

Mexico's oil production is rapidly declining. The Cantarell oil field, one of the world's largest, is responsible for almost two-thirds of Mexico's production. In 2004, it brought up 2.1 million barrels a day; today it produces only half that. Unless new sources are found, Mexico -- up until last year the second-largest supplier to the United States -- will become a net oil importer by the year 2018.

For some countries, being a net oil importer is no big deal. But for Mexico, oil represents the single largest amount of revenue for the federal government -- about 40 percent. This looming "energy crisis" would be felt more than just at the pump. It would be across the board, impacting financial, social and political sectors as well.

Still, almost every expert on this issue I've interviewed or heard speak in recent months insists that it won't get that bad. They say Mexico will come to its senses and adopt the kind of overhaul that will give the country's state-run oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos -- Pemex -- enough flexibility to invest more of its profits in modernizing its operations. That way, the experts say, it could become more like Brazil's state-run Petrobras, regarded as one of Latin America's most well-run companies.

At the same time, Mexico's attitude about oil and Pemex's serious systemic flaws don't inspire much optimism. The energy proposals introduced last month by President Felipe Calderon offer some modest reforms, but probably not enough to stem the crisis. As Jeffrey Davidow, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, put it diplomatically, "the steps they are taking are not sufficient."

The End of the World as You Know It...The Rise of the New Energy World Order

This is kind of dated now but I've been pretty busy....
From Information Clearinghouse click here.

New World Order, Forged in the Gulf

Click here for the full and LONG story by Andrew G. Marshall

(If the page comes up blank or without the article, click on the sidebar "Middleast" and look for the title and author. It was wayyy too long to copy here. It took me almost 2 hours off and on to read and absorb all of it. Of course, I'm slow that way.)

Is anybody ready for a short review of American geopolitical history to the present? You'll find it in this article. I think we often need a reminder. I did. The article puts many pieces of the puzzle together concerning American geopolitics over at least the last 30 years or so.

The author implies how and why different governmental figures implemented the things America and Britain has done and what role certain think tanks, politicos, multinationals, and individuals play(ed) in the scheme of geopolitical events that have occurred and are occurring.

I would roughly guess that 95% of the populace doesn't even have the attention span to want to find any of this out or to remember it. Even if they did, they would not give it much afterthought. Personally, being the kind of deep thinker I am, I feel kind of powerless myself but I simply don't have the kind of heart to drop it just because I can't do anything about it. I hate to be melodramatic but it just makes me hurt inside for all the poor innocent souls out there who have to endure the brunt of a worldwide geopolitical game run by a huge bunch of untouchables. One day it could be me. I wish I could convince those in control that we, the human race, are all no more important than the jellyfish, including them. Not that we aren't important to each other on an individual basis or that human life isn't precious. To the contrary! Everything is precious! However, none of us last forever, just as with the jellyfish.

Here's a few things I learned or subconsciously re-recalled from the article. Did you know our government helped form the Taliban and covertly supported reviving and kindling Islamic fundamentalism so that they would resist any attempts of control from the USSR? We funded and supplied them with ammunition to fight the Soviets in the Afghan-Russia war? Did you know that in WWI the Brits more or less appointed the Sauds as the Royal family for Saudi Arabia? The Saudis are Sunni and Iran are Shia. They've hated each other for at least a century. There was a dispute between Iraq and Kuwait over whose oil was near their border next to each other. Kuwait was using their oil, Saddam had lots of debt owed to a lot of multinationals and could not produce enough of their own oil to pay off the debts. When he asked the U.N. and the U.S. Sec. of State Baker if he could invade, they said they had no opinion. He invaded, we attacked. The Kuwaitis never alerted their military about the possible invasion! Afghanistan was the key location (in between) for extending a planned pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan. OBL is a member of the Saudi Royal family. 911 was perpetuated by Saudi Islamic fundamentalist extremists. The neocons and the big oil multinationals (U.S., Europeans, Arabs) disagree on how to control the Iraqi oil at this point--privatize and split it up or state oil-run OPEC member? That Brezienzki (sp?) was the left's Henry Kissinger. Brezienzki wanted to monopolize the Mideast and Asia covertly, the neocons and big oil believe things are best won by brute military might. Oh, there's much more in that article. I'm just not remembering it all right now.

The sad part about all of this is that I bet no children within our educational system have ever been taught any of this nor ever will. If so, there might be some more informed people in our populace today who would understand what is happening. No longer is it taught how to think but mostly what to think by process of not presenting the whole picture. Heck, some people might even side with the law of competition and fully agree with these actions of worldwide imperialism (which is contrary to my conclusions). I would be okay with that. I just wish we were told the truth. The WHOLE truth and not just little soundbytes of news snippets from the oligarchy called the mass media. What we ought to have is an informed electorate who votes in elections on foreign, economic, social, environmental, etc., policies from the various think tanks! All the candidates have been are representatives of certain policies designed by these think tanks!

Oh, I'll get off my soapbox now. There was a really awesome saying I liked off one the blogs called Blue Girl, Red State and it says: "America is founded on four boxes: 1) The Soap Box, 2) The Ballot Box, 3) The Jury Box, and 4) The Ammo Box...in that order. LOL

CNN International: "World at peak oil output"

This is a re-hash on another article I linked to (and it seems everyone else in the peak oil blogosphere as well) only it adds a contrary view to the German-based Energy WatchGroup study's claims. See below:

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.

The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year. It says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.

"It's a very serious result," said Hans-Josef Fell, a German lawmaker from the environmentalist Green Party who commissioned the report. "I fear the world will come into a big economic crisis in the coming years."

The report warns that coal, uranium, and other key fossil fuels are also in declining supply. It predicts the fall in fossil fuel production will bring with it the threat of war, humanitarian disaster, and general social unrest.

But Leo Drollas, who leads oil and gas market analysis and forecasting at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said there are plenty of supplies and no looming crisis. He said the report sounds like "scaremongering."

Drollas says production could still slow one day, but only because new reserves will be considered too difficult or expensive to extract.

"Oil could be left in the ground and we could move on to another fuel in the future, not because we're running out of oil but because, economically speaking, it is not worth extracting the oil," Drollas said.
advertisement

The debate comes as oil prices have hovered at record level. Wednesday morning, NYMEX crude was listed at $84.96 a barrel; oil prices topped $90 a barrel last week.

Analysts do agree, however, that oil prices could continue to rise, especially if there is further instability in the Middle East.

I also have another geopolitical analysis article to post next regarding a different but deeper perspective on the oil situation. I've come to the conclusion that if oil has peaked or not--is indifferent to me at this point. It will sooner or later no matter what. I'm beginning to realize that I would prefer to live lower on the totem pole, in peace and with a sound conscience than to contribute the the greedy geopolitical interventions of any country, any elite, any government, blindly well-intentioned or not. One thing I definitely hate about this world is the law of competition. Ugh. All I can say is keep reading until it hurts. You often are reminded that on the macro scale of things in this world, there is just no gaining control of some things like cooperation. You can influence and win over many to your worldview but it will NEVER include everybody.

I was wondering why Myanmar (Burma) was of such importance...

in the U.S. news lately. Please don't misunderstand me, Myanmar is just as important as anyplace else but the U.S. media doesn't pick up news on places like this unless there is some interest in it for them!

Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution": The Geopolitics Behind the Movement

If the article doesn't show up, click on Southeast & Asia and look for the title dated October 15, 2007.