Frequent contributor U. Doran sent in this link from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas-USA: Peak Oil Is A Done Deal .
Bottom line: Saudi Arabia and Russia, which together pump about 23% of the world's oil, are both in depletion decline. So are Mexico, the North Sea, etc.
Simply put: every time the "Oil Bull" is declared dead, as it was in January, it rises with extraordinary alacrity to new heights. The reason is not gol-durned speculators but supply and demand--even as demand inches downward, supply is declining even faster.
Let's put "demand destruction" in the U.S. in its proper context. 300,000 barrels a day is chump-change in a nation which burns 21 million barrels a day. if supply were increasing by leaps and bounds as it was in the 80s, fine, then you could have a huge demand-supply imbalance in favor of supply. But by even the most optimistic estimates, "excess capacity" (all in heavy crude few can refine) is about 1.4 million barrels a day--a razor-thin margin.
I have predicted one last "head-fake" decline in oil prices, but it's going to take serious reduction in demand, on the order of 4-5 million barrels a day globally, to get that drop.
Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global warming. Show all posts
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Charles Hugh Smith: Oil Down $16 to $130, Everything Wonderful Again: Not
Full blog post here.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Permaculture Guru David Holmgren's Website: Future Scenarios
I've just found this site. I'm not sure how long it has been up but I'd like to take a moment to circulate Mr. Holmgren's website for those also unaware of it. Having to go to work in half an hour also negates me from reading it right away as well. I will also add this interesting site to my sidebar.
I ordered my first rain barrels today here at Gardeners Supply Company. You might know they are on backorder until the second week in July! They were about the cheapest I could find for what I wanted. The garden is starting out well. Hopefully I will have some pictures up soon on this site or my picture place blog....one step at a time....
I ordered my first rain barrels today here at Gardeners Supply Company. You might know they are on backorder until the second week in July! They were about the cheapest I could find for what I wanted. The garden is starting out well. Hopefully I will have some pictures up soon on this site or my picture place blog....one step at a time....
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Global warming's impact already costs plenty;
CEO Economic Update: Global warming's impact already costs plenty;
from the page: "The mathematical model looked at the future cost of oil, its related chemical and rubber end products, metals, and the cost of electricity. In short, it was a comprehensive look at how the world might change if Kyoto was enacted, and doing so would be expensive. So expensive, API concluded solutions should be left to future and richer generations.
Ten years later, per capita GDP has grown by $6,000, so we are certainly richer. But more importantly, the other side of the argument is becoming clearer: The cost of doing nothing has an attachable dollar cost.
Back when the simulations were being drawn up, the cost of doing nothing was unclear. Today, with hundreds of destroyed building, and tens of thousands dead, it's time to weigh the cost of doing something against the cost of doing nothing.
Chart: No matter the measurement, warming is on the rise."
http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2007/06/global_warmings.html
from the page: "The mathematical model looked at the future cost of oil, its related chemical and rubber end products, metals, and the cost of electricity. In short, it was a comprehensive look at how the world might change if Kyoto was enacted, and doing so would be expensive. So expensive, API concluded solutions should be left to future and richer generations.
Ten years later, per capita GDP has grown by $6,000, so we are certainly richer. But more importantly, the other side of the argument is becoming clearer: The cost of doing nothing has an attachable dollar cost.
Back when the simulations were being drawn up, the cost of doing nothing was unclear. Today, with hundreds of destroyed building, and tens of thousands dead, it's time to weigh the cost of doing something against the cost of doing nothing.
Chart: No matter the measurement, warming is on the rise."
http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2007/06/global_warmings.html
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