Sunday, October 21, 2007
Corn ethanol requirements passed by senators??
Someone on one of my lists just posted this link of a chart presented by Matthew Simmons on corn ethanol requirements recently passed by the senate. Oh boy , this puts "eminent domain" in a whole new light....this means I might have to move to Michigan or Ohio!
A nice Peak Oil article from Grand Forks, ND
Click here for full story.
Snippet:
Snippet:
In your Homecoming speech this month, you said that the “peak oil” era is coming to an end, which sounds ominous. Can you tell us what you mean?
The best way is a quote from Cambridge engineer researcher associate Dan Yergin. “It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil, and we'll use the next trillion in 30.”
That defines in my mind the issue we're facing, but there is a huge debate going on between basically two schools of thought. One is the Cambridge Energy Research Association's thought, which is that we have plenty of oil in the world, and we are good at developing technology. In spite of the fact that energy information agencies are forecasting we will be using another 30 million plus barrels a day of oil in the world between now and 2030, and technology will find a way to do that. That's one school of thought.
Another school of thought says we are at the maximum point of producability, and so it's decline from here on down. That's the “peak oil” theory.
If you look at production in North America or any of these mature basins, or even production from the Williston Basin, you'll see a demonstration what “peak oil” looks like. When you deal with a finite resource, you can develop it, produce it and keep increasing it up to a point. Then, once you go past the mid-way point, you're into decline.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Age of Scarcity Industrialism by John Michael Greer
Click for full article here.
In this article, Greer applies Kubler-Ross' stages of grief, death & dying to the greater American society's attitude towards the awareness of a slow decline of petroleum energy in the past 25-30 years. My only comment is that as an individual, one doesn't always flow successively from one stage to the next. Remember, sometimes these stages occur simultaneously or can fluctuate into one and out of another and back again. The five stages include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally, acceptance. At what stage would you say we are as a country at this moment?
In this article, Greer applies Kubler-Ross' stages of grief, death & dying to the greater American society's attitude towards the awareness of a slow decline of petroleum energy in the past 25-30 years. My only comment is that as an individual, one doesn't always flow successively from one stage to the next. Remember, sometimes these stages occur simultaneously or can fluctuate into one and out of another and back again. The five stages include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally, acceptance. At what stage would you say we are as a country at this moment?
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
business.iafrica.com: "Oil at $87 a barrel is cheap"
Click here for full story.
Snippet:
..."According to US government forecasts, world petroleum liquids consumption is expected to increases from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030.
That's an increase of almost 30 percent and there are not enough new oil reserves to meet this demand.
"The price of oil has to increase otherwise it would be betraying the laws of economics," said White.
"I bet that in 10 year's time after the Asian population has boomed and gentrified and peak oil has hit home hard, you will have to agree with me that oil at $87 a barrel was cheap, cheap, cheap," he said. ..."
Snippet:
..."According to US government forecasts, world petroleum liquids consumption is expected to increases from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030.
That's an increase of almost 30 percent and there are not enough new oil reserves to meet this demand.
"The price of oil has to increase otherwise it would be betraying the laws of economics," said White.
"I bet that in 10 year's time after the Asian population has boomed and gentrified and peak oil has hit home hard, you will have to agree with me that oil at $87 a barrel was cheap, cheap, cheap," he said. ..."
I was wondering why Myanmar (Burma) was of such importance...
in the U.S. news lately. Please don't misunderstand me, Myanmar is just as important as anyplace else but the U.S. media doesn't pick up news on places like this unless there is some interest in it for them!
Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution": The Geopolitics Behind the Movement
If the article doesn't show up, click on Southeast & Asia and look for the title dated October 15, 2007.
Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution": The Geopolitics Behind the Movement
If the article doesn't show up, click on Southeast & Asia and look for the title dated October 15, 2007.
$88/barrel of oil and nobody's blinking
Click here for yahoo comments on $88/barrel oil
Why is it that the price of a barrel of oil has hit an all time high and the physical world is not even blinking an eye? Is it because gas prices aren't that high yet? It's still only $2.71 at my benchmark gas station. I guess everyone's has become accustomed to the higher prices and are glad that it isn't $3.50/gallon yet.
In other news today, I've heard that 2/3 of the working population is saving next to nothing for retirement and that the majority is planning on spending more this year on Christmas than last year!? To add to that, food prices are outrageous. Maybe people don't buy food or cook anymore, so they aren't aware. Maybe they all eat out all the time.
Well, I just thought I'd bring it to anyone's attention who runs across this blog. I just thought I'd let whoever know that 7 years ago a barrel of oil was around $20/barrel and now it's made it to about $12 within the $100/barrel of oil mark.
Why is it that the price of a barrel of oil has hit an all time high and the physical world is not even blinking an eye? Is it because gas prices aren't that high yet? It's still only $2.71 at my benchmark gas station. I guess everyone's has become accustomed to the higher prices and are glad that it isn't $3.50/gallon yet.
In other news today, I've heard that 2/3 of the working population is saving next to nothing for retirement and that the majority is planning on spending more this year on Christmas than last year!? To add to that, food prices are outrageous. Maybe people don't buy food or cook anymore, so they aren't aware. Maybe they all eat out all the time.
Well, I just thought I'd bring it to anyone's attention who runs across this blog. I just thought I'd let whoever know that 7 years ago a barrel of oil was around $20/barrel and now it's made it to about $12 within the $100/barrel of oil mark.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Peak Oil: Alternatives, Renewables & Impacts
Click for full .pdf written by Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D. here.
Abstract
"This paper examines scientific and government studies in order to provide reliable conclusions about Peak Oil and its future impacts. Independent studies indicate that global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will decline until all recoverable oil is depleted within several decades. Because global oil demand is increasing, declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression. Alternative sources of energy will replace only a small fraction of declining oil production. Because oil under girds the world economy, oil depletion will result in global economic collapse and population decline. As oil exporting nations experience both declining oil production and increased domestic oil consumption, they will reduce oil exports to the U.S. Because the U.S. is highly dependent on imported oil for transportation, food production, industry, and residential heating, the nation will experience the impacts of declining oil supplies sooner and more severely than much of the world. North American natural gas production has peaked, importation of natural gas is limited, and the U.S. faces shortages of natural gas within a few years. These shortages threaten residential heating supplies, industrial production, electric power generation, and fertilizer production. Because U.S. coal production peaked in 2002 (in terms of energy provided by coal), the U.S. will experience significantly higher coal and electric prices in future years as coal production declines. The U.S. government is unprepared for the multiple consequences of Peak Oil, Peak Natural Gas, and Peak Coal. Multiple crises will cripple the nation in a gridlock of ever-worsening problems. Within a few decades, the U.S. will lack car, truck, air, and rail transportation, as well as mechanized farming, adequate food and water supplies, electric power, sanitation, home heating, hospital care, and government services."
Abstract
"This paper examines scientific and government studies in order to provide reliable conclusions about Peak Oil and its future impacts. Independent studies indicate that global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will decline until all recoverable oil is depleted within several decades. Because global oil demand is increasing, declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression. Alternative sources of energy will replace only a small fraction of declining oil production. Because oil under girds the world economy, oil depletion will result in global economic collapse and population decline. As oil exporting nations experience both declining oil production and increased domestic oil consumption, they will reduce oil exports to the U.S. Because the U.S. is highly dependent on imported oil for transportation, food production, industry, and residential heating, the nation will experience the impacts of declining oil supplies sooner and more severely than much of the world. North American natural gas production has peaked, importation of natural gas is limited, and the U.S. faces shortages of natural gas within a few years. These shortages threaten residential heating supplies, industrial production, electric power generation, and fertilizer production. Because U.S. coal production peaked in 2002 (in terms of energy provided by coal), the U.S. will experience significantly higher coal and electric prices in future years as coal production declines. The U.S. government is unprepared for the multiple consequences of Peak Oil, Peak Natural Gas, and Peak Coal. Multiple crises will cripple the nation in a gridlock of ever-worsening problems. Within a few decades, the U.S. will lack car, truck, air, and rail transportation, as well as mechanized farming, adequate food and water supplies, electric power, sanitation, home heating, hospital care, and government services."
Friday, September 14, 2007
CNN Money headline: 'The end of oil'
Click here for full article.
It's always nice to see the mainstream acknowledging the subject of peak oil.
It's always nice to see the mainstream acknowledging the subject of peak oil.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
After Oil Supplies Dry Up, What's Plan B?
Click here for full article.
Excerpt:
Excerpt:
At this point, you might be asking yourself: When oil becomes scarce, how will I get food? That's a very good question. Here are a few more: Will my garbage get picked up? How will my water district purify and deliver water and treat sewage without petrochemicals? What if I need an ambulance? What if my home is one of the 7.7 million that rely on oil for heating? Which of my medications are made out of petrochemicals? How will I get to work? Will I even have a job anymore?
But don't just ask yourself. Ask your elected officials, your public utility district and your grocer. Ask the U.S. Postal Service, Federal Express and American Airlines. Ask GM. If you have one, ask your financial adviser or stockbroker which companies will still be in business after peak oil hits. Odds are, he or she will give you a blank stare.....
....But cities cannot solve the peak oil problem on their own. They don't have the revenue needed to build light-rail networks and wind farms or to store massive grain reserves. During a recession, they will be in no position to guarantee income supports for millions of laid-off workers. But the more they do now, while they still have a revenue stream, the better off their residents will be.
If the peak oil doomsday scenarios are to be averted, it will require coordinated action at every level of government, by every sector of the economy and by every community and citizen in the nation. We are heading into a political era in which the need to come together to invent and support life-sustaining social and economic systems will trump all else.
Some tout alternative energy technologies as the silver bullet that will save us from a peak oil crisis. But there is a broad consensus among energy analysts that it will be decades before such alternatives are available for wide-scale implementation. Moreover, some of the alternatives with the strongest political backing, including ethanol and liquefied coal, may cause even more severe global warming than petroleum has.
The United States needs to slam the brakes on fossil fuel consumption. As if arresting climate change weren't enough of a reason for immediate and strong conservation measures, the end of oil may just force upon Americans a reality we have ignored for far too long: We cannot go on like this, pedal to the metal, asleep at the wheel.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Monday, September 03, 2007
Green algae to the rescue
Green algae to the rescue
Isaac Berzin, a rocket scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is using algae to clean up power-plant exhaust, saving greenhouse gas emissions and satisfying energy needs.
The idea occurred to him three years ago, although it is not exactly new (see below). He bolted onto the exhaust stacks of a 20 MW power plant rows of clear tubes with green algae soup inside. The algae grew happily, gobbling up 40 percent of the carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, and as a bonus, 86 percent of the nitrous oxide as well, resulting in a much cleaner exhaust.
The algae is harvested daily and its oil extracted to make biodiesel for transport use, leaving a green dry flake that can be further processed to ethanol, also a transport fuel (but see “Ethanol from cellulose biomass not sustainable nor environmentally benign”, this series).
GreenFuel, the company set up by Berzin in Cambridge Mass., has already attracted £11 million in venture capital funding and is conducting a field trial at 1 000 MW plant owned by a major southwestern power company. GreenFuel expects two to seven more such demo projects, scaling up to a full production system by 2009.
One key to success is to select an alga with a high oil density – about 50 percent by weight. Algae are prolific and can produce 15 000 gallons of biodiesel per acre, compared to just 60 gallons from soybean. Berzin estimates that a 1 000 MW power plant using his system could produce more than 40 million gallons of biodiesel and 50 million gallons of ethanol a year. But that would require a 2 000 acre farm near the power plant.
Greenfuel is not alone in racing to make oil out of algae. Greenshift Corporation, an incubator company based in Mount Arlington New Jersey, licensed a CO2-scrubbing screen-like filter developed by David Bayless, researcher at Ohio University. A prototype is capable of handling 140 cubic metres of flue gas per minute, an amount equivalent to the exhaust from 50 cars or a 3-megawatt power plant.
The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had a research project from1978 to1996 on creating renewable transportation fuel with algae making use of waste CO2 from coal fired power plants. The project, led by NREL scientist John Sheehan, was funded at $25.05 m over the 20-year period, compared to the total spending under the Biofuels Program over the same period of $459 m. It resulted in a collection of 300 species of green algae and diatoms, now housed in the University of Hawaii and still available to researchers. Although some technical and economic problems remained to be solved, it was estimated that just 15 000 square miles (or 3.8 m ha) of desert (the Sonoran desert in California and Arizona is more than 8 times that size) could grow enough algae to replace nearly all of the nation’s current diesel requirements, and algae use far less water than traditional oilseed crops.
Researchers also suggested using algae to clean up Salton Sea in Southern California, into which more than 10 000 tons of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are discharged annually. The idea was to use some 1 000 ha of pond system to grow algae such as Spirulina with the sea water, harvest the algae biomass and convert that into fuels, while the residual sludge could be recycled to agriculture for its fertilizer value. An estimate suggests that such a process could mitigate several hundred thousand tons of CO2 emissions at below $10/ton CO2 equivalent.
But it is perhaps the algae’s potential for carbon-capture that makes them most attractive, and it is as yet almost untapped.
Isaac Berzin, a rocket scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is using algae to clean up power-plant exhaust, saving greenhouse gas emissions and satisfying energy needs.
The idea occurred to him three years ago, although it is not exactly new (see below). He bolted onto the exhaust stacks of a 20 MW power plant rows of clear tubes with green algae soup inside. The algae grew happily, gobbling up 40 percent of the carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, and as a bonus, 86 percent of the nitrous oxide as well, resulting in a much cleaner exhaust.
The algae is harvested daily and its oil extracted to make biodiesel for transport use, leaving a green dry flake that can be further processed to ethanol, also a transport fuel (but see “Ethanol from cellulose biomass not sustainable nor environmentally benign”, this series).
GreenFuel, the company set up by Berzin in Cambridge Mass., has already attracted £11 million in venture capital funding and is conducting a field trial at 1 000 MW plant owned by a major southwestern power company. GreenFuel expects two to seven more such demo projects, scaling up to a full production system by 2009.
One key to success is to select an alga with a high oil density – about 50 percent by weight. Algae are prolific and can produce 15 000 gallons of biodiesel per acre, compared to just 60 gallons from soybean. Berzin estimates that a 1 000 MW power plant using his system could produce more than 40 million gallons of biodiesel and 50 million gallons of ethanol a year. But that would require a 2 000 acre farm near the power plant.
Greenfuel is not alone in racing to make oil out of algae. Greenshift Corporation, an incubator company based in Mount Arlington New Jersey, licensed a CO2-scrubbing screen-like filter developed by David Bayless, researcher at Ohio University. A prototype is capable of handling 140 cubic metres of flue gas per minute, an amount equivalent to the exhaust from 50 cars or a 3-megawatt power plant.
The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had a research project from1978 to1996 on creating renewable transportation fuel with algae making use of waste CO2 from coal fired power plants. The project, led by NREL scientist John Sheehan, was funded at $25.05 m over the 20-year period, compared to the total spending under the Biofuels Program over the same period of $459 m. It resulted in a collection of 300 species of green algae and diatoms, now housed in the University of Hawaii and still available to researchers. Although some technical and economic problems remained to be solved, it was estimated that just 15 000 square miles (or 3.8 m ha) of desert (the Sonoran desert in California and Arizona is more than 8 times that size) could grow enough algae to replace nearly all of the nation’s current diesel requirements, and algae use far less water than traditional oilseed crops.
Researchers also suggested using algae to clean up Salton Sea in Southern California, into which more than 10 000 tons of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are discharged annually. The idea was to use some 1 000 ha of pond system to grow algae such as Spirulina with the sea water, harvest the algae biomass and convert that into fuels, while the residual sludge could be recycled to agriculture for its fertilizer value. An estimate suggests that such a process could mitigate several hundred thousand tons of CO2 emissions at below $10/ton CO2 equivalent.
But it is perhaps the algae’s potential for carbon-capture that makes them most attractive, and it is as yet almost untapped.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Catching up to party on the edge
Greetings. If anybody is left still checking back on me to see if I've posted anything new, I apologize for the lack of activity. This year has not been good for the family. My father-in-law passed away June 25th after a prolonged illness that began in March which required much attention. My grandfather who will be 99 September 9th has also been ill requiring still more of my attention up to this date. I am now guardian of his person. Also, Wednesday, I assisted my daughter in returning to college.
All of this is in between the full-time job. So, I've virtually attained no goals for myself this summer like I had planned. I have a garden but it is nothing like I had wanted or had planned. I'll be lucky to get much produce at all because I was so late in planting everything out. I've only managed to make it to the Farmer's Market once this summer because of my work hours and then also because of having to take care of or do things for others during the times the market was open. So, in other words, I haven't even been able to practice food preservation methods. But things are winding down a little now, and I am beginning to have time to catch up.
I have been able to track the stock markets these past 2 weeks. Yikes. I managed to switch over some funds and minimize my losses this week by switching 33% to a money market in my 403b. (It's not like I have tons of investments making tons of money, okay? I'm just practicing for when I'm rich! lol) In the 403b, one cannot withdraw what has been put into it unless it's needed for education expenses or extreme hardship circumstances. So, I just put as little in it as possible--despite it's growth in the last 3 years. I studied my prospectus, found the most peak oil-friendly fund offered (utilities & communications) which isn't saying much, and deposited 33% into it the past few years since learning about peak oil. It has rewarded me in small measures. It has been the highest yielding performance fund and only this week did it drop some...but not as badly as the rest. I also had about $700 sitting in some fund I don't contribute to anymore and just moved it over to my fixed, too. I had forgotten about it. No sense in having it sucked up when the markets yo-yo around like this!
Overall, I agree with many of the experts that it's not looking good long term. I'm not putting much "stock" in my funds (pun intended!). The most important advice I can give someone new to peak oil who is reading this post is to invest in the things you would need to live in a lower energy world. Any investments having to do with this fiat money system is probably futile. First think "get out of debt", and then secondly think "barter & trade"!
Although I'm still behind on reading my peak oil discussion board emails, I've had time to read some. Among them, I've found a few good websites that people have referred to on the discussion lists. The first link can be found on live journal by clickinghere. There are many different additional links found there as well. For those of you who like to mix your liberal politics with peak oil, click here.
Finally, I stumbled onto another live journal blogger who has written a little synopsis that I can relate to very much. Here it is, and it's title is called "Partying on the edge of the twilight zone".
Catching up. Partying on the edge. It's so difficult to try to have one foot in one world and the other in another.
All of this is in between the full-time job. So, I've virtually attained no goals for myself this summer like I had planned. I have a garden but it is nothing like I had wanted or had planned. I'll be lucky to get much produce at all because I was so late in planting everything out. I've only managed to make it to the Farmer's Market once this summer because of my work hours and then also because of having to take care of or do things for others during the times the market was open. So, in other words, I haven't even been able to practice food preservation methods. But things are winding down a little now, and I am beginning to have time to catch up.
I have been able to track the stock markets these past 2 weeks. Yikes. I managed to switch over some funds and minimize my losses this week by switching 33% to a money market in my 403b. (It's not like I have tons of investments making tons of money, okay? I'm just practicing for when I'm rich! lol) In the 403b, one cannot withdraw what has been put into it unless it's needed for education expenses or extreme hardship circumstances. So, I just put as little in it as possible--despite it's growth in the last 3 years. I studied my prospectus, found the most peak oil-friendly fund offered (utilities & communications) which isn't saying much, and deposited 33% into it the past few years since learning about peak oil. It has rewarded me in small measures. It has been the highest yielding performance fund and only this week did it drop some...but not as badly as the rest. I also had about $700 sitting in some fund I don't contribute to anymore and just moved it over to my fixed, too. I had forgotten about it. No sense in having it sucked up when the markets yo-yo around like this!
Overall, I agree with many of the experts that it's not looking good long term. I'm not putting much "stock" in my funds (pun intended!). The most important advice I can give someone new to peak oil who is reading this post is to invest in the things you would need to live in a lower energy world. Any investments having to do with this fiat money system is probably futile. First think "get out of debt", and then secondly think "barter & trade"!
Although I'm still behind on reading my peak oil discussion board emails, I've had time to read some. Among them, I've found a few good websites that people have referred to on the discussion lists. The first link can be found on live journal by clickinghere. There are many different additional links found there as well. For those of you who like to mix your liberal politics with peak oil, click here.
Finally, I stumbled onto another live journal blogger who has written a little synopsis that I can relate to very much. Here it is, and it's title is called "Partying on the edge of the twilight zone".
Catching up. Partying on the edge. It's so difficult to try to have one foot in one world and the other in another.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Dongtan Eco-city for 500,000
Dongtan in Wikipedia, click here.
Quote:
Dongtan is planned to open, with accommodation for 50,000, by the time the Expo 2010 opens in Shanghai. By 2040, the city is slated to be one-third the size of Manhattan with a total eventual population of 500,000.
Dongtan was presented at the United Nations World Urban Forum by China as an example of an eco-city, and is the first of up to four such cities to be designed and built in China by Arup, a global design and engineering company. The cities are planned to be ecologically friendly, with zero-greenhouse-emission transit and complete self-sufficiency in water and energy, together with the use of zero energy building principles. However, the planned ecological footprint for each citizen in Dongtan is currently 2.2 hectares[1], higher than the 1.9 hectares that is theoretically sustainable on a global scale.
Dongtan proposes to have only green transport movements along its coastline. People will arrive at the coast and leave their cars behind, traveling along the shore as pedestrians, cyclists or on sustainable public transport vehicles.
Steven Finnegan, a British Environmental architect is working on the project.
Quote:
Dongtan is planned to open, with accommodation for 50,000, by the time the Expo 2010 opens in Shanghai. By 2040, the city is slated to be one-third the size of Manhattan with a total eventual population of 500,000.
Dongtan was presented at the United Nations World Urban Forum by China as an example of an eco-city, and is the first of up to four such cities to be designed and built in China by Arup, a global design and engineering company. The cities are planned to be ecologically friendly, with zero-greenhouse-emission transit and complete self-sufficiency in water and energy, together with the use of zero energy building principles. However, the planned ecological footprint for each citizen in Dongtan is currently 2.2 hectares[1], higher than the 1.9 hectares that is theoretically sustainable on a global scale.
Dongtan proposes to have only green transport movements along its coastline. People will arrive at the coast and leave their cars behind, traveling along the shore as pedestrians, cyclists or on sustainable public transport vehicles.
Steven Finnegan, a British Environmental architect is working on the project.
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