Wednesday, October 24, 2007

CNN International: "World at peak oil output"

This is a re-hash on another article I linked to (and it seems everyone else in the peak oil blogosphere as well) only it adds a contrary view to the German-based Energy WatchGroup study's claims. See below:

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.

The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year. It says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.

"It's a very serious result," said Hans-Josef Fell, a German lawmaker from the environmentalist Green Party who commissioned the report. "I fear the world will come into a big economic crisis in the coming years."

The report warns that coal, uranium, and other key fossil fuels are also in declining supply. It predicts the fall in fossil fuel production will bring with it the threat of war, humanitarian disaster, and general social unrest.

But Leo Drollas, who leads oil and gas market analysis and forecasting at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said there are plenty of supplies and no looming crisis. He said the report sounds like "scaremongering."

Drollas says production could still slow one day, but only because new reserves will be considered too difficult or expensive to extract.

"Oil could be left in the ground and we could move on to another fuel in the future, not because we're running out of oil but because, economically speaking, it is not worth extracting the oil," Drollas said.

The debate comes as oil prices have hovered at record level. Wednesday morning, NYMEX crude was listed at $84.96 a barrel; oil prices topped $90 a barrel last week.

Analysts do agree, however, that oil prices could continue to rise, especially if there is further instability in the Middle East.

I also have another geopolitical analysis article to post next regarding a different but deeper perspective on the oil situation. I've come to the conclusion that if oil has peaked or not--is indifferent to me at this point. It will sooner or later no matter what. I'm beginning to realize that I would prefer to live lower on the totem pole, in peace and with a sound conscience than to contribute the the greedy geopolitical interventions of any country, any elite, any government, blindly well-intentioned or not. One thing I definitely hate about this world is the law of competition. Ugh. All I can say is keep reading until it hurts. You often are reminded that on the macro scale of things in this world, there is just no gaining control of some things like cooperation. You can influence and win over many to your worldview but it will NEVER include everybody.

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