The World at $100 A Barrel: The Seoul Times

The Seoul Times

World's Smallest Political Quiz

www.theadvocates.org

USATODAY.com - Debate brews: Has oil production peaked?

www.usatoday.com

Financial Sense Storm Watch Update "There is No Plan B" by Jim Puplava 10/14/2005

www.financialsense.com

Two day wrap-up & thoughts

Hello, folks. I'm trying to overcome a "cold/flu bug" that got me Wednesday. Maybe I've been thinking and seeing so much coverage regarding the Avian bird flu virus that I psychosomatically developed the symptoms of the flu! I'm feeling better than yesterday, though. Actually, I think I caught it because my insistence on leaving the heat off lowered my immune system which isn't acclimated to the colder temperatures we've been experiencing lately. I've only decreased the thermostat to 68 degrees but it hasn't turned on yet. We've had several days/weeks of fluctuating weather. Today it was warm.

Yesterday, I spent most of the day (sick and) traveling because I had to take my mother to the "big" hospital in Indianapolis for a follow-up visit. On the way back, we visited a place that sold fresh brown eggs, apple cider, gourds, pumpkins & squash. It wasn't as fun as usual because I was sneezing & chilling continually. Later, after we returned, I had to attend "Senior Night" for my daughter's volleyball. They usually have this every year for senior players on their last home game night. That's right. Four more volleyball games and watching my daughter play volleyball is history! I won't be quite as busy after all this is over. Kind of bittersweet. Next, it's on to searching for scholarships and moving on to Purdue where she was accepted for next Fall.

After she's off to college next Fall, I will have the freedom to become more involved in helping to build community for the coming hard times! This past week, I've been contemplating setting up a date at the local library for an "End of Suburbia" viewing as an introduction to peak oil for the community. I have a list of key contacts within the communiy who I think might be receptive to it. Then, I'll place an announcement in the newspaper. I want to call my group "L.E.A.D.--Logansport Energy Awareness Development". It could exist with many avenues such as personal and community preps, education on geopolitics, community development, downtown revitalization...just all kinds of things from peak oil education to how to store foods to local community activism. This could include guests like co-op extension demonstrators, local food distributors, local emergency planners for the city and brainstorming ways to prep for disasters etc., and more. I have it all written down somewhere. In the first meeting I could display pertinent books to recommend (we're in a LIBRARY of course!) and various websites to get more information. I could also offer to show it at house parties and things like that to get others educated on our predicament. Anyway, it's in my plans before Christmas.

On another note, I've heard Carla Emery who wrote the book "Encyclopedia of Country Living" died this week of a heart attack caused by an infection of some sort? This is sad and disheartening because she was in my plans to have her come to my city and give a presentation for my group!

I'm also now the OWNER of my previously 4-year leased 2002 Jeep Grand Cherokee, and NO, I'm not proud of it! I had to compromise with my husband. He wanted to keep it and I didn't. The ONLY reason I agreed to keeping it was that the payments would be $100 less a month. I had to compromise in my situation so that's where I'm at. Like I said, he's not completely with me on the peak oil bandwagon yet. Maybe I can con him into getting me a nice bicycle and/or clotheslines (indoor & outdoor) now since I compromised??! ....

I've been watching the financial channel today. Seems like they aren't too optimistic. Collective consensus from the bears & the bulls suggests that they "just won't know" until the beginning of next year. The bears seem to think "recession" in 1Q 2006 with the higher heating costs. The bulls think not. That's the only place they're differing. My perception is that the stocks probably won't reflect the adversity that millions of Americans will have to go through because of the bankrupsty laws, higher energy costs, consumer debt, etc. My hunch is the investor class will do alright but they will do alot of complaining. They froze some accounts for trading on this one company that starts with an "F". They were kind of worried about that. They were worried about GM & Ford sales. Nary a person to be found in a Chicago car showroom today. They say all the incentives have saturated the market and people will not buy until they start offering those incentives again--pressuring the automakers. October is usually the worst month of every year for stocks so I'm not surprised that the market will be lower this month. I just look for things to start cracking from January to May especially with the natural gas & oil lines of distribution being affected.

The good old oil just seems to be hovering from $61-65 doesn't it?! The talking heads just think that's great! Well, that's not what they were saying last year!? They also haven't been this pessimistic ever since as long as I've been watching it.

Last note, almost every light in my home uses the CF lightbulbs now. Even the porchlight! I just may give them as presents for Christmas since they cost so darn much! lol I think those along with something like a fire extinguisher and a carbon monoxide detector would be nice as presents. I might do this for some on the list.

That's it for now. I'm feeling the effects of this bug come back again. Better go lay down for awhile.....

CNN: High gas prices forcing governers to park SUVs

CNN

PERSONAL NOTE: My governor Mitch Daniels is still driving his huge mobile trailer thingy that was "donated" to him. I think he also uses biodiesel--also donated (probably to support local corn/ethanol production).

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has been using a white Ford Escape hybrid after Katrina, keeping his Ford Expedition parked when he travels around Tallahassee. The hybrid goes hand-in-hand with Bush's recent push for alternative fuels. Ford and Lincoln vehicles are made by Ford Motor Co.

"It's kind of hard to be arguing to conserve gasoline when you're driving around in a Ford Expedition that guzzles it down at a 6- to 8-mile per gallon clip," Bush said last month.

Two Midwest governors, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Tom Vilsack of Iowa, are shifting to SUVs that run on E85, a gas-ethanol blend. Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne started using an E85 Chevrolet Suburban after helping open a pump for the alternative fuel in Boise.

Pawlenty, who is awaiting a black Chevy Suburban, considered getting a hybrid. He chose an ethanol-powered SUV because he couldn't find a hybrid large enough to accommodate himself, three family members, security, equipment and staff members. Chevrolet is a brand of General Motors Corp.

"Our country has been asleep at the switch on these things," Pawlenty said. "The basic economics are that the supply of fossil fuels is limited and the demand is outstripping the supply. It's a recipe for continued crisis if we don't start changing our ways."

Maine Gov. John Baldacci, meanwhile, has left the SUV world altogether. He now uses an unmarked sedan such as a Chevrolet Impala instead of a Suburban.

Code Three & FTD have become chick diaries...

I think I'm definitely going to have to kill my links to Code Three and Flying Talking Donkey! They've morphed into chick diaries! Will this be my fate? I'm sad. Bye bye Code Three and FTD....please let me know if you resurect into something anew! I will miss you.

From A Texas Realtor's Perspective: Energy Tsunami On the Way

realtytimes.com

NOTE: I think he misquotes Simmons on saying to expect $10 barrel oil...I think he means $100 barrel oil. Maybe I'm wrong. Read everything in context at the website.

CORRECTION: I reread it and he's saying Simmons said $10 agallon of gas not a barrel of oil! Duh! My bad.

...Okay, so what does all of this mean to you as someone in real estate? Well keep in mind we're really in uncharted waters here. It's not like we can look to the past and learn from all the times something similar to this has happened to us. This is a very unique and unprecedented event in our lifetimes, and in world history, too. But here are my thoughts on what this could mean to all of us who are in real estate:


1. The values of homes and residential rental properties in and closer to major cities will probably do better in the long run versus those located farther away in the suburbs. Especially when compared with those suburbs that have a high percentage of their population who commute a great distance to major cities for their jobs. This is because the cost of commuting could become so expensive that people will do whatever it takes to live closer to the city rather than spend so much money on gas and sit in traffic.

2. Office buildings will experience a major increase in heating and air conditioning costs, especially those located in areas with severe winters or very hot summers. Landlords of these buildings could experience a substantial loss in their profits if their leases don't call for their tenants to pay for any increases in heating and air conditioning expenses. And conversely tenants who will be paying for these increased expenses themselves will find this solidly biting into their own profits.

3. Commercial and industrial properties closer to the major cities will do much better than those in the suburbs. With more people living closer to the major cities, commercial space in these areas will command even more of a premium in the future when compared with commercial space in the suburbs.

4. There will be a need for a much greater amount of housing near the central business districts of major cities. People will want to live closer to where they work and they'll also want to be within walking distance to both shopping and entertainment. This will create a demand for revitalizing central business districts and creating a more neighborhood-friendly environment with shopping, entertainment, and restaurants all nearby.

5. Industrial businesses will transition away from shipping and receiving their goods by truck and towards shipping and receiving them by rail which will be more economical for them. And as a result we'll see a surge in demand for rail-served manufacturing and warehouse buildings, and those buildings without rail will sit vacant for longer periods of time and command less rent when they're finally leased.
So while in recent years owning a rail-served building may not have meant much to your prospective tenants, you may very well have a functionally obsolete building on your hands years down the road no matter what kind of condition it's in and how high the ceilings are if your prospective tenants can't ship by rail.


6. Manufacturing businesses that already have substantial energy costs right now will be hit very hard with the coming increases in these costs and will find it increasingly difficult to remain profitable. In addition, I'm hearing from agents all over the country that their markets are cooling down now and listings aren't moving as fast as they were months ago. In looking over the past 25 years in our industry, through three economic up cycles and two down ones, this is exactly the way the down cycles have begun in the past.
In both situations there was a gradual cooling off period where buyers were no longer willing to pay the higher prices, but sellers still wanted to get the higher prices anyway. And when you're talking about selling commercial or investment properties with owners who don't need to sell them if they don't want to, this can become very frustrating when you're an agent. But if you study Peak Oil and become very knowledgeable about it, you may be able to persuade your owners that they may be far better off selling their property now at the best price they can get for it, rather than waiting and taking their chances one or more years down the road.

And in saying this to you, the real estate world was full of owners during the last two recessions who really wished they had sold their property 2-3 years earlier while times were still good. Remind your owners of this, show them the underlying warning signs of where your market could be headed, including the potential problems with Peak Oil, and you just might convince them that they could turn out to be market timing geniuses if they move forward and sell right now....

Back to the future: peak-oil scenario fuels "go local" campaign

www.vermontguardian.com

BRATTLEBORO — Good news! The world is fast approaching the end of its oil supplies. Their depletion will lead to a Malthusian catastrophe as oil-driven economies crash, petroleum-linked world food supplies shrink, transportation costs skyrocket, and industrialized urbanization reverses itself, sending people fleeing their SUV-dependent suburbs for a rural lifestyle.

It takes a real optimist to see opportunity in such a dire scenario. But, a handful of Windham County activists see the end of oil dependence as the beginning of a better way of life.

“I believe that there are tremendous opportunities embedded in this whole issue/crisis of peak oil,” said Brattleboro ecological engineer Tad Montgomery.

“I’m seeing a lot of people wake up. A lot of people who have wanted to implement alternatives for years or decades finally are saying this is the time to put up those solar panels or drive a biodiesel car. They’re insulating their homes, riding their bicycles, growing gardens, and preserving foods, finding self-reliance,” he said.

Montgomery is a co-founder of Post-Oil Solutions (POS), a group of about 10 people who have been meeting twice a month since the summer to brainstorm ways to insulate and strengthen their communities against the potential effects of an oil-based economy crash. Self-reliance is the POS watchword, but so is interdependence: the ironic juxtaposition that community interdependence will achieve independence.

Petrocollapse for change of culture-Jan Lundberg

www.culturechange.org

"In anticipation of your wanting elaboration on my predictions of petrocollapse and a positive recovery for a sustainable culture, let me summarize:

Rather than just a geological phenomenon, peak oil and its effects can turn out to be a function of the oil market acting as its own executioner. As alternatives to petroleum do not quite exist -- on the scale and cheapness necessary to allow the growth economy to perpetuate -- there will be nowhere for "petrosociety" to go but down and out. Reasons for the likelihood of rapid collapse include hoarding of fuel which will create artificial shortage. Businesses and people already hurting from post-hurricane petroleum prices and from the anticipated much higher-to-come oil prices, will not be able to stay on the road and on the job. As Congressman Roscoe Bartlett quoted me at the House of Representatives in May, "the trucks will not be rolling into Safeway and Walmart." As he added, "the veneer of civilization is very thin."

The U.S. government and other leading institutions are not willing or able to provide leadership, as evidenced by the lack of any learning from the hurricane's effects on society and energy. Just as the warning on Katrina was not heeded, the warning from Katrina's and Rita's effects was not heeded. These hurricanes may be the straw that broke the camel's back. Now the Energy Secretary is warning of high prices and shortages. We may be being prepared for rationing, and military management -- or the attempt -- of the nation under emergency conditions, although rejected by governers a few days ago. But the government will not be able to manage long without energy, especially when the population is no longer busy using energy as before. Congressman Bartlett told me last month that police and firemen are known through studies to abandon attempts at public order when the conditions of a given situation are past a certain point.

Although there will be insufficient food and therefore massive upheaval culminating in die-off, there will be plentiful land and housing. A new society will come together on a local-ecosystem basis. Cooperation and sharing will be necessary for survival, to make urban and suburban land productive and to assure water is as clean as possible. Petrocollapse along with climate distortion shall be such an historic learning experience that a completely different approach to human relations and economics will be adopted. There will be a perhaps universal rejection of the ways and values of petroleum society, and those who do not adapt will fail in contrast to strong, tribal communities. A lifestyle of separteness or non-community behavior, so rife in today's dominant, mainstream culture, would be seen as threatening the common good and a throwback to history BP: Before Petrocollapse. The bright side is that we will be taking care of the Earth in order to survive. This is how it always was, and appreciation of the long-term for the common good will return as a basic cultural value."

We Can't Afford Our Gasoline (cartoon short-movie)

Hat tip to Mark N. on ROE2:

www.atomfilms.com

Sidenote: I've been offline for a couple days due to some spyware my computer got hit with. It's all taken care of for now....no more withdrawals!

Fence Done

fence project

Well, the fence is almost finished. We still have to finish painting the inside. Ugh. I can tell my age now after painting the outside perimeters!

As you can see, my windows really need replacing. They're as old as the house--almost 30 years old. They're those old National Homes windows that have (it seems like) 3 panes of windows to remove and clean all the time. They were supposed to be energy efficient but I think we can do better these days. We think we might replace one at a time and pay as we go. I've really been paying close attention to those on RunningOnEmpty2 who talk about window replacement and insulation. Don't have the money yet but I want to know where I want to go with getting new windows for the best energy efficiency. I think I'm interested in those passive solar reflective-type of windows.

This picture is taken viewing the south and west sides of the house. It really gets a beating from the sun. I can't talk my spouse into getting solar panels for the south side there with only 2 windows. The tree in the back (west side)that is located close to the house has really helped with cooling the house in the hot summer. The fence helps keep the deer out of the garden and prevents the winter wind from beating the house too badly.

My first garden this year was only made up of 3-2x8s and a 4x4 raised bed. I will have plenty of space for more raised beds I plan to do as soon as I can find time and money. My spouse also wants us to buy a small shed so we can store bicycles, Christmas stuff, and gardening materials. Money, money, again.....one thing at a time, I guess.

Scarlet Alert (new blog)

scarletalert.blogspot.com

Here's another new blog. This author's focus is how to convince others about peak oil and it's ramifications. They evidently attended the 2nd Annual Peak Oil Conference in Yellow Springs, OH, recently. I was never able to find anyone to go with nor could I get the time off work and away from my daughter's volleyball tournament that weekend. Money was an issue, too. By golly, I'm going next year come hell or high water! It just wasn't in the cards for this year. Anyway, check out the new blog! It looks like a good one!

Oil Prayer

inventor.org

If you haven't read this one, this is really good.

Sub-$100 laptop unveiled

BBC news

I like the sound of this. However, I'm sure it will take a lot of fossil fuels to make such a mass of these things. If we have to prioritize, though, I'm all for keeping the internet!